Ethanol
Expect to see a succession of false and just plain dumb notions to come out of the media until global warming as a media topic cools off a little and is again replaced with Britney's marriages.
Things that you might want to watch out for --
1 -- The government needs to do something. This is the standard call of those who favor the nanny state. The government cannot do anything except spend a lot of money. If global warming due to people is real, the people will correct it themselves through natural market mechanisms. Vote against any proposals, or the politicians making them, for government interference, especially fiat imposed restrictions on fossil fuel use. You might want to seriously consider voting Republican in 2008, regardless of the Bush legacy, because the Reps are less likely to come up with some hare-brained government scheme.
2 -- You will see much drum beating for alternative fuels. The alcohol lobby will be out in force, touting the benefits of burning alcohol instead of gasoline. Here's a news item, folks -- burning alcohol produces just as much carbon dioxide and water (possibly more important than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas) as burning gasoline, diesel, etc. The only way to produce less carbon dioxide is to burn less organic material. Further, the evidence shows that alcohol production consumes approximately as much energy as it produces. (In other words, there is no free lunch.) Further, alcohol production consumes vast quantities of water (something that we don't have a large surplus of), and the diversion of corn to alcohol production will increase (indeed, already has increased) prices in corn products such as sweeteners and anything containing such and in meat products (since we raise our livestock largely on corn). In other words, the higher price in alcohol versus gasoline won't be just at the pump, it will be reflected throughout the economy. And the government interference here is pretty minimal. The ethanol situation is complicated further by the fact that corn isn't the most efficient feed stock for alcohol -- sugar is. So why is corn getting all the attention? Because, children, the corn lobby is bigger than the sugar lobby.
3 -- You will see the electric car lobby out in force as well, pushing the idea that running your car either entirely or partially on electricity will save us from global warming. Until we start producing significantly higher percentages of our power from something other than coal fired or natural gas power plants running a car on electricity will produce just as much greenhouse gases as running the car on gasoline. Why? Because a power plant that produces electricity through the use of fossil fuels produces it by burning organic materials. In fact, running your car on electricity may actually cause the production of more carbon dioxide and water, because the energy delivered to your wheels is less efficient, due to the losses from transmission of the electricity from the power plant to your house. Further, the production of the battery in your car requires the consumption of energy. (In other words, there is no free lunch.)
4 -- You will see a rash of proposals, all touting the benefits of lower carbon dioxide production of this or that new device. Such proposals will usually be accompanied by requests for money, usually tax money, to further develop and implement the new magic. Look askance at these proposals. Let skepticism be your guide.
5 -- There will be a legion of fear and guilt mongers. You will be constantly challenged to prove that you are a good person, someone who is worthy of living on this planet. Beware if you drive an SUV or if you drive to work instead of taking mass transit or if your house uses incandescent lighting. Or, for that matter, if you are alive. Or if you own stock in an oil company and not in an alcohol company.
6 -- There will be many attempts to convince you that measures to cool off the climate are equivalent to reducing our dependence on foreign oil. You would be well advised to consider these as separate subjects. Any connection will be purely coincidental. Energy is energy. Whether we burn our own oil or somebody else's has no effect on whether the greenhouse gases produced warm the atmosphere or not.7 -- The human contribution to global warming has not been established, the UN science report notwithstanding. For that matter, global warming itself has not been established. And in any case, we are a long way from knowing if such warming would be negative or positive in its net effect. Suppose somebody had warned you of global warming 10,000 years ago? Would you really rather be living under a sheet of ice? If you are of a certain age, you may remember the hue and cry of the 1950s that we were about to be done in by a new ice age. Wait a while. The pendulum will no doubt swing again and the next case of falling sky may indeed be a coming ice age.In summary, don't panic.
Things that you might want to watch out for --
1 -- The government needs to do something. This is the standard call of those who favor the nanny state. The government cannot do anything except spend a lot of money. If global warming due to people is real, the people will correct it themselves through natural market mechanisms. Vote against any proposals, or the politicians making them, for government interference, especially fiat imposed restrictions on fossil fuel use. You might want to seriously consider voting Republican in 2008, regardless of the Bush legacy, because the Reps are less likely to come up with some hare-brained government scheme.
2 -- You will see much drum beating for alternative fuels. The alcohol lobby will be out in force, touting the benefits of burning alcohol instead of gasoline. Here's a news item, folks -- burning alcohol produces just as much carbon dioxide and water (possibly more important than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas) as burning gasoline, diesel, etc. The only way to produce less carbon dioxide is to burn less organic material. Further, the evidence shows that alcohol production consumes approximately as much energy as it produces. (In other words, there is no free lunch.) Further, alcohol production consumes vast quantities of water (something that we don't have a large surplus of), and the diversion of corn to alcohol production will increase (indeed, already has increased) prices in corn products such as sweeteners and anything containing such and in meat products (since we raise our livestock largely on corn). In other words, the higher price in alcohol versus gasoline won't be just at the pump, it will be reflected throughout the economy. And the government interference here is pretty minimal. The ethanol situation is complicated further by the fact that corn isn't the most efficient feed stock for alcohol -- sugar is. So why is corn getting all the attention? Because, children, the corn lobby is bigger than the sugar lobby.
3 -- You will see the electric car lobby out in force as well, pushing the idea that running your car either entirely or partially on electricity will save us from global warming. Until we start producing significantly higher percentages of our power from something other than coal fired or natural gas power plants running a car on electricity will produce just as much greenhouse gases as running the car on gasoline. Why? Because a power plant that produces electricity through the use of fossil fuels produces it by burning organic materials. In fact, running your car on electricity may actually cause the production of more carbon dioxide and water, because the energy delivered to your wheels is less efficient, due to the losses from transmission of the electricity from the power plant to your house. Further, the production of the battery in your car requires the consumption of energy. (In other words, there is no free lunch.)
4 -- You will see a rash of proposals, all touting the benefits of lower carbon dioxide production of this or that new device. Such proposals will usually be accompanied by requests for money, usually tax money, to further develop and implement the new magic. Look askance at these proposals. Let skepticism be your guide.
5 -- There will be a legion of fear and guilt mongers. You will be constantly challenged to prove that you are a good person, someone who is worthy of living on this planet. Beware if you drive an SUV or if you drive to work instead of taking mass transit or if your house uses incandescent lighting. Or, for that matter, if you are alive. Or if you own stock in an oil company and not in an alcohol company.
6 -- There will be many attempts to convince you that measures to cool off the climate are equivalent to reducing our dependence on foreign oil. You would be well advised to consider these as separate subjects. Any connection will be purely coincidental. Energy is energy. Whether we burn our own oil or somebody else's has no effect on whether the greenhouse gases produced warm the atmosphere or not.7 -- The human contribution to global warming has not been established, the UN science report notwithstanding. For that matter, global warming itself has not been established. And in any case, we are a long way from knowing if such warming would be negative or positive in its net effect. Suppose somebody had warned you of global warming 10,000 years ago? Would you really rather be living under a sheet of ice? If you are of a certain age, you may remember the hue and cry of the 1950s that we were about to be done in by a new ice age. Wait a while. The pendulum will no doubt swing again and the next case of falling sky may indeed be a coming ice age.In summary, don't panic.
posted by David H. Neal at 7:41 AM
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