Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Obama's Experience

You couldn't get a job as a reporter and become the nightly news anchor after 143 days of experience.

You couldn't get a job at McDonalds and become district manager after 143 days of experience.

You couldn't become chief of surgery after 143 days of experience of being a surgeon.

You couldn't get a job as a teacher and be the superintendent after 143 days of experience.

You couldn't join the military and become a colonel after a 143 days of experience.

BUT....
'From the time Barack Obama was sworn in as a United States Senator, to the time he announced he was forming a Presidential exploratory committee, he logged 143 days of experience in the Senate. That's how many days the Senate was actually in session and working. After 143 days of work experience, Obama believed he was ready to be Commander In Chief, Leader of the Free World .... 143 days.

We all have to start somewhere. The senate is a good start, but after 143 days, that's all it is - a start.

AND, strangely, a large sector of the American public is okay with this and campaigning for him. We wouldn't accept this in our own line of work, yet some are okay with this for the President of the United States of America? Come on folks, we are not voting for the next American Idol!

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Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Ethanol

Expect to see a succession of false and just plain dumb notions to come out of the media until global warming as a media topic cools off a little and is again replaced with Britney's marriages.

Things that you might want to watch out for --

1 -- The government needs to do something. This is the standard call of those who favor the nanny state. The government cannot do anything except spend a lot of money. If global warming due to people is real, the people will correct it themselves through natural market mechanisms. Vote against any proposals, or the politicians making them, for government interference, especially fiat imposed restrictions on fossil fuel use. You might want to seriously consider voting Republican in 2008, regardless of the Bush legacy, because the Reps are less likely to come up with some hare-brained government scheme.

2 -- You will see much drum beating for alternative fuels. The alcohol lobby will be out in force, touting the benefits of burning alcohol instead of gasoline. Here's a news item, folks -- burning alcohol produces just as much carbon dioxide and water (possibly more important than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas) as burning gasoline, diesel, etc. The only way to produce less carbon dioxide is to burn less organic material. Further, the evidence shows that alcohol production consumes approximately as much energy as it produces. (In other words, there is no free lunch.) Further, alcohol production consumes vast quantities of water (something that we don't have a large surplus of), and the diversion of corn to alcohol production will increase (indeed, already has increased) prices in corn products such as sweeteners and anything containing such and in meat products (since we raise our livestock largely on corn). In other words, the higher price in alcohol versus gasoline won't be just at the pump, it will be reflected throughout the economy. And the government interference here is pretty minimal. The ethanol situation is complicated further by the fact that corn isn't the most efficient feed stock for alcohol -- sugar is. So why is corn getting all the attention? Because, children, the corn lobby is bigger than the sugar lobby.

3 -- You will see the electric car lobby out in force as well, pushing the idea that running your car either entirely or partially on electricity will save us from global warming. Until we start producing significantly higher percentages of our power from something other than coal fired or natural gas power plants running a car on electricity will produce just as much greenhouse gases as running the car on gasoline. Why? Because a power plant that produces electricity through the use of fossil fuels produces it by burning organic materials. In fact, running your car on electricity may actually cause the production of more carbon dioxide and water, because the energy delivered to your wheels is less efficient, due to the losses from transmission of the electricity from the power plant to your house. Further, the production of the battery in your car requires the consumption of energy. (In other words, there is no free lunch.)

4 -- You will see a rash of proposals, all touting the benefits of lower carbon dioxide production of this or that new device. Such proposals will usually be accompanied by requests for money, usually tax money, to further develop and implement the new magic. Look askance at these proposals. Let skepticism be your guide.

5 -- There will be a legion of fear and guilt mongers. You will be constantly challenged to prove that you are a good person, someone who is worthy of living on this planet. Beware if you drive an SUV or if you drive to work instead of taking mass transit or if your house uses incandescent lighting. Or, for that matter, if you are alive. Or if you own stock in an oil company and not in an alcohol company.

6 -- There will be many attempts to convince you that measures to cool off the climate are equivalent to reducing our dependence on foreign oil. You would be well advised to consider these as separate subjects. Any connection will be purely coincidental. Energy is energy. Whether we burn our own oil or somebody else's has no effect on whether the greenhouse gases produced warm the atmosphere or not.7 -- The human contribution to global warming has not been established, the UN science report notwithstanding. For that matter, global warming itself has not been established. And in any case, we are a long way from knowing if such warming would be negative or positive in its net effect. Suppose somebody had warned you of global warming 10,000 years ago? Would you really rather be living under a sheet of ice? If you are of a certain age, you may remember the hue and cry of the 1950s that we were about to be done in by a new ice age. Wait a while. The pendulum will no doubt swing again and the next case of falling sky may indeed be a coming ice age.In summary, don't panic.

Sunday, February 05, 2006

Bush's Dilemma

You have to pity President Bush. Your heart goes out to him in his suffering. Even he must see the inconsistencies between what he says and what he sees in the world around him. He preaches democracy throughout the world, offering it as this generation's Great Crusade. His logic is sound. Democracies don't start wars, so if we democratize the world we will enter upon an era of endless peace filled with free trade and affordable health care. Yet, reality intrudes upon his bliss. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is favored at the polls. The Palestinians elect Hamas, a terrorist political party. Bush threatens the people with cutting off foreign aid so long as they pursue their notion of democracy. We have installed democracy in Iraq, yet the war goes on with no end in sight. Iran democratically elected a madman who exhorts his people to develop nuclear weapons and wipe Israel off the map. Bush's response to this exercise in democracy seems likely to be to bomb Iran's bomb facilities, thereby demonstrating to the Iranians and the rest of the world that not all democracies are equal.

If we look really hard, we can find other inconsistencies between the Ideal and the Real. Consider this snippet from Reason magazine, March 2006, "Chinese authorities have arrested more than 100,000 members of the Falun Gong religious movement and sent at least 20,000 to labor camps. According to Chinese human rights activists, members of unregistered religious groups who are imprisoned are forced to make Christmas lights that are sold for export." There is nothing democratic or free market about China, yet it is our favorite trading partner, one to whom we are more than willing to send our jobs. Bush threatens them not. Is it possible that size matters?

Poor George! He hangs upon the Cross of Democracy, his suffering obvious, and we hear his cry, "Oh Cheney, why hast thou forsaken me?" But Cheney hears him not, for he is still chugging across the country exhorting the people that Saddam has WMD and is certain to use them.

Saturday, January 21, 2006

Come Gaze Into My Crystal Ball

By 2500, Indonesia was the last "nation state" on the planet. Corporatism was the dominant political and economic system throughout the world. Corporatism is generally believed to have sprung full blown from the crises of the 21st Century, like Venus sprang from the brow of Jove. That wasn’t the case. The process of the development of Corporatism was actually long and complex.

The rise of Corporatism began in the 19th Century, and was best represented in its development in the United States in the 20th Century. Corporatism is not limited to corporations founded to gather resources and make a profit for shareholders. It includes numerous nonprofit special interest groups as well, of private individuals contributing to corporations designed for the purpose of shifting public policy for such diverse interests as environmental preservation, labor rights, women’s reproductive rights, religious groups, and others too numerous to name. These various interests and factions used their money through campaign contributions to attempt to swing public policy to their interests, whether they were profit making organizations or not.

There is little doubt, though, that profit making corporations had the major influence on policy, mainly because they controlled more capital, and therefore power. Although gaining in power throughout the 20th Century, the corporations gained a significant boost in the era of the second Bush administration, when the Republican Party, the party allied principally with the corporations, controlled both the White House and the Congress. Although Congress had been yielding its Constitutional duty to the Executive branch for several decades, it gave up its authority at an unprecedented rate during the second Bush administration. In effect, the president became an elected king, and Congress was relegated to the role of a rubber stamp for whatever proposals he might make, without any special regard for Constitutionality or legality. This concentration of power produced the same weaknesses in political, social, and economic structure that had marked the old European monarchies.

Most historians agree that the apparently illegal seizure of power by the second Bush administration was done in good faith with the welfare of the nation at heart. This period was marked by an irrational fear of terrorists, who were believed to be hiding under every rock with nuclear weapons in hand. The administration asked Congress for, and received, essentially unchecked power to fight this largely illusory threat. A hysterical populace willingly surrendered its rights for a false security. Subsequent administrations continued to chip away at the separation of powers until the Executive branch finally became essentially autonomous and the country gradually slipped into a situation where it was completely controlled by the corporations.
The end of the nation states began with the Mexican migration into the United States at the beginning of the 21st Century. This migration was the second wave, the first having occurred a century earlier, when the American corporations induced Congress to allow what amounted to unlimited immigration in the early 20th Century. What had been an "Anglo" (basically British) culture encouraged Germans, Slavs, Italians, and Eastern Europeans to immigrate to the United States to fill jobs that were created by the rapid industrialization of the United States. On the west coast, Chinese immigrants were imported for building railroads, mining, and other day labor type tasks.

The mix of national origins caused by the earlier migration led to the nickname of "The Melting Pot" for the United States. The celebration of the American "melting pot" set the stage for the public to accept the illegal immigration from Mexico in the early 21st Century, and the failure of the American government (the second Bush administration) to enforce immigration laws resulted in the movement of tens of millions of Mexicans into the United States, especially the southwestern area, where they gradually took over the area that had been conquered by the US in the War With Mexico in 1849. This immigration was also a result of corporatism. The corporations favored the lower wages available from the poor immigrants, who were often willing to work for considerably less than the prevailing labor rate. The border between the United States and Mexico effectively ceased to exist, although it had never been very substantial.

Adding to this migration was the availability of easy visas, lobbied in Congress by the corporations, which allowed highly skilled technical personnel working for lower wages than American technical personnel to move in from India and other high poverty, but well educated, countries. This was also a period of "outsourcing", the practice of hiring companies in poor, lower labor rate countries such as India to perform work on computers that had previously been done by Americans. These combined processes were collectively known as "globalization", and were initiated by American corporations that had become multinational in scope and practice. These corporations no longer had any real allegiance to their mother country, the United States. All stakeholders in the corporations -- shareholders, employees, contractors, vendors, suppliers, communities, etc, were scattered across the globe. This "globalization" was the real birth of corporatism.

An additional destabilizing force was a historical debt level, both public and private, made possible by fiat money. There seemed to be no reason to not spend, when the government only had to print more money to keep the economy growing. That this "growth" was largely illusory, being based on the belief that "a little inflation is a good thing", never seemed to occur to the government, and certainly escaped the attention of the mass consumer. The effect was similar to a hamster running in a wheel in his cage. If he is capable of accelerating his wheel, it will eventually break. Likewise, the economy eventually broke. The economic disaster was global, as befitted a world in the throes of globalization.

In this scene of a destabilized political and economic system, the dominant Mexican population of the southwest United States combined with the Mexican population of the northern Mexican states in an attempt to form a new country that they called Aztlan, and attempted to secede from both the United States and Mexico. The population of the southwest US was certainly not exclusively Mexican, but was dominated by those of Mexican descent. Rabble rousing politicians seized on the instability to attempt to convince the population that secession was desirable.

This attempt at secession failed to produce a true civil war on either side of the border. Anglos living in the area, anxious to protect their property and their US citizenship, fought back so that there were no convenient "fronts" except on the city streets. Riots and gang wars became common. Government was helpless to control the situation. The advance of technology and its easy availability made it impossible for a government to win any war or put down any insurrection. The region of Aztlan quickly fell into a state of anarchy.

A similar situation was seen in Europe, where the European Union had eliminated borders between the individual countries. The free flow of labor across borders erased any real nationalism, and the importation of Muslim labor from the Middle East set up a condition very similar to that seen in the illegal immigration of Mexicans into the US. As the global economy collapsed, the Muslims, now a substantial fraction of the population, attempted to take over the governments of the European states, and join them with the governments of the Muslim Middle East. The result was chaos and anarchy, especially in France, which had an immigration policy even more liberal than the United States. No single European country was able to muster sufficient strength to restore order, and the various European states were too much under Muslim influence to make any significant cooperative effort.

American and multinational corporations, anxious to protect their property, took over the tasks of local government, much as the mining companies had provided the government in the mining camps of 19th Century America. They fielded their own armies and police forces and provided for the general welfare of the areas where they were dominant.

People ceased to be citizens of countries as such and became members of corporations. Corporations of various sizes and interests banded together in alliances and factions. The members of the corporations derived not only wages from the corporations but their welfare benefits, etc, that had previously been provided by government. The corporations conducted their own diplomacy based on contracts, both with each other and with the remaining governments of the world. Where contracts were broken, wars resulted.
Gradually, the governments of the world withered and disappeared. The corporations varied in their democracy or despotism. People shifted their allegiance based on employment opportunities and welfare benefits. When they moved from one corporation to another their allegiance moved with them. A corporate citizen in Dallas was just as much the same citizen in Paris.

The nation states did not just give up. The democracies continued to run elections as long as there was still someone willing to go to the trouble to vote. Totalitarian regimes continued for as long they could manage to control their territory. Initially, the governments attempted to regain control of the corporate areas, but they couldn’t compete with the corporations’ superior competence and they couldn’t even maintain their armies. Soldiers deserted and went over to the corporate entities for the better salaries and benefits. In time, the governments could not field armies at all. Token governments remained in place for decades after they ceased to exist as functional entities but they were more imaginary than real.

Corporatism wasn’t planned by anyone. Due to the unique combination of circumstances of the era it just happened, a natural evolution of democracy combined with advancing technology and the effect of fiat money.

Sunday, June 26, 2005

The Magpie and the Hawk -- A Parable for Our Times?

Observed one afternoon from my kitchen window.

A hawk swooped into the yard, apparently after another bird, looking for dinner. He missed, and decided to rest on the fence. A magpie mosied over and landed beside him, maybe a yard away. The hawk was alert but didn't move. The magpie eased over a step or two, and the hawk sat. The magpie did that maybe a dozen times, and was maybe a foot away. He was too close. The hawk took off, the magpie chasing him, squawking loudly.

This incident sent me to doing what I euphemistically call thinking. The magpie probably had a nest nearby and was defending it. Notice that I emphasize that he was defending it. The hawk was bigger but the magpie was motivated. But the magpie didn't see any point in attacking the hawk directly, even though he would probably survive the fight. No, he chose to try to intimidate the hawk instead. He succeeded. The hawk was only looking for something to eat. He had no interest in getting into a pointless fight, even though technically it was a fight he should have won. But he would have been weakened and rendered less capable of searching for and acquiring food. So he yielded the ground and left instead. The magpie won by avoiding a fight, not by seeking it.

Is there a lesson for the US here, specifically Bush? Is it really necessary to attack all these hawks around the world, especially since they are more like sparrows when compared to the US? Is it really smart to weaken ourselves
so that if we really do have to fight we will be less capable than if we had focused on defense? Think about it.

Friday, June 24, 2005

The End of Freedom in America

The Supreme Court has rewritten the Constitution for us. By a close vote (5 - 4) the Supremes decided that a govenmental unit can take your property to turn it over to a commercial enterprise for development. Previously, Eminent Domain was considered reserved for public need, such as highways or schools. Under this ruling, your house or business can be condemned to turn the property over to Wal-Mart. The gap between the haves and have-nots has been made even wider.This means that private property has ceased to have any meaning. The very basis of our form of government has been summarily destroyed. Without private property the concept of the individual is meaningless. This decision, for the first time in U. S. history, makes the government unequivocally superior to the individual. There can be no free markets, nor freedom of action, with the shadow of government seizure looming in the background. Carried to its logical conclusion, this decision means that the government can seize your wrist watch if it perceives a higher use for it.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

On Revolution, High Expectations, and Reality

The politicos and the pundits are crowing about a "revolution" in the Middle East, and about how the invasion of Iraq is bringing democracy to the Middle East through a "domino effect." Never mind that the "revolution" is only a month old. Are revolutions necessarily good things, as Martha would say? As Americans we like to think that every revolution is a good one -- after all, look at what it did for America (an observation that Ward Churchill might disagree with, by the way, but that's a subject for another day). Before we get too carried away with the notion that revolutions are always good (especially the idea that somebody else's revolution is necessarily good for us), let's take a glance at reality, and keep in mind that unintended (and unexpected) consequences are more the rule than not. Let's look at just a few real world cases. Perhaps the most obvious example is the French Revolution, which brought the Terror (real terror, not just an occasional shot) to France, and then produced Napoleon, who brought more terror to the rest of Europe for years afterward. Consider the Russian Revolution, which brought the nightmare of Communism (actually, Leninism and Stalinism) to Europe and imposed the Cold War on the US. Consider Cuba and Castro. For that matter, consider the Iraq revolution that put Saddam into power, and the Iran revolution that overthrew the Shah (our friend, by the way) and put the Mullahs into power. The American Revolution was actually an anomoly in the history of revolutions. Most don't turn out well. Having stepped on the tube, can we really control how the toothpaste comes out?